Great Decisions 2012 Winter Update: Middle East realignment


Great Decisions Updates are issued seasonally and provide groups with the latest news and analysis on topics. The Winter 2012 Update is current as of January 13, 2012. Download the Winter 2012 Update as a PDF here.

by Leslie Huang, assistant editor
 

EGYPT. Clashes between protesters and the government in Egypt have raised questions about the durability of the gains made by the January 25 revolution and about the military’s willigness to relinquish power. As voting in the Egyptian parliamentary elections unfolded in December, there were instances of military violence against voters, judges and election monitors. On December 16, the civilian advisory council announced that its operations would be suspended until violence against protesters ended and, inter alia, an investigation was conducted.

Parliamentary elections, which ended on January 3, delivered an estimated 45 percent of seats to the Muslim Brotherhood’s Freedom and Justice Party (FJP). The ultraconservative Salafists are expected to hold the next-largest share of seats, controlling approximately one fourth of parliament.

On January 5, prosecutors in the trial of deposed Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak called for the death penalty for the strongman and for his former interior minister, Habib el-Adly, for their part in the killing of protesters. Mubarak’s sons, Alaa and Gamal, face prison terms for corruption charges. A capital sentence, if handed down, could be vetoed by the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF), the military government currently ruling Egypt.

On January 11, Egypt announced intentions to negotiate with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for $3 billion that could buoy the ailing economy. Egypt has been particularly hard hit by a severe drop in tourism, and poverty is endemic.

LIBYA. In December, the U.S. entered into talks with the National Transitional Council (NTC) to establish a program to buy back Man-Portable Air Defense Systems (Manpads), antiaircraft weapons that were taken from Libyan military munitions depots during the fighting last year and remain unaccounted for. Western nations are concerned that these heat-seeking shoulder missiles could fall into the hands of terrorists. The U.S. has committed $40 million to programs to prevent the spread of arms in Libya.

In January, the NTC proposed a draft law for electing a constitutional assembly, to be selected by June. Meanwhile, the NTC is struggling to disband the rebel militias that fought against the regime of Moammar Qadhafi. In a disturbing new trend, on January 3, militias in Tripoli clashed with each other, resulting in several fatalities.

On December 16, the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) unfroze the assets of the Central Bank of Libya and the Libyan Foreign Bank at the request of the NTC. The assets, which had been frozen as part of a wide campaign of sanctions against Qadhafi’s government, could provide $40 billion to help rebuild the country.

Human Rights Watch met with Seif al-Islam Qadhafi, one of Qadhafi’s sons, on December 18. While awaiting trial for crimes against humanity, the younger Qadhafi is being held by a rebel group in Zintan.

SYRIA. On December 22, an Arab League mission arrived in Syria to monitor the government’s commitment to withdraw its military from residential areas and to end its violent crackdown on the protests that have convulsed the nation. Despite the presence of the Arab League observers, human rights activists reported dozens of casualties across the country and fear that the monitoring mission is a stalling tactic. Activists have criticized the leader of the mission, Lt. Gen. Muhammad Ahmed Mustafa al-Dabi, who has been accused of heavy-handed tactics during his tenure as the intelligence chief of Sudan.

Tens or hundreds of thousands of protesters massed in the streets of Damascus, Idlib, Homs and Hama on December 30 to register their grievances with the monitors. Amid the controversy, at least one observer quit the mission in protest against the continuing violence. Human rights organizations have accused the Syrian government of torturing and killing hundreds of political prisoners since the unrest began last year. Estimates of the total number of prisoners being held by the government of President Bashar al-Assad run as high as 37,000.

Russia offered the UNSC a tougher draft resolution on Syria on December 15. Though the draft resolution fell short of imposing sanctions, this unexpected move, coupled with increasingly strong condemnation from Turkey, indicate that Syria is being isolated from its friends and allies. However, on January 12, a Turkish Foreign Ministry official told reporters that a Russian ship arrived in Syria with a “dangerous” cargo that may have included arms—in violation of an EU embargo.

YEMEN. On November 26, President Ali Abdullah Saleh returned to Yemen from Saudi Arabia. Although Saleh signed an agreement to yield his powers to his vice president, Abed Rabbo Mansour al-Hadi, on November 27, it is unclear whether he will actually relinquish power. He declared a general amnesty for most participants in the unrest that has roiled the country. The embattled president and other government officials have been granted immunity as part of a power-sharing agreement.

Government forces continued to crack down on demonstrators in December, killing at least 9 protesters. On January 4, after having previously announced that he would travel to the U.S. to seek medical treatment for wounds sustained during a bombing last summer, Saleh announced that he would remain in the country. The president’s vacillations and reversals of position have frustrated international negotiators. A presidential election is scheduled for February.

BAHRAIN. On November 23, the Bahrain Independent Commission of Inquiry released a report on the abuses committed by security forces during the crackdown on protests in 2011. The report, which had been commissioned by King Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa, indicated that systematic mistreatment, including torture, of detainees and excessive force were used by the government’s forces, but not by the Saudi troops that intervened at Bahrain’s request. The report also rejected government allegations that Iran was responsible for the protests. In response, the king declared that those responsible for the abuses would be held accountable. Members of the opposition, however, claimed that the report failed to trace the chain of responsibility to the highest levels of government.

TUNISIA. On December 13, Tunisia’s constitutional assembly elected Moncef Marzouki as president. Marzouki, a dissident who was exiled by deposed former president Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali, will serve for a year. He was elected as part of a power-sharing agreement between a coalition of Islamist and secular parties.