Great Decisions 2012 Winter Update: Exit from Afghanistan and Iraq

 

Great Decisions Updates are issued seasonally and provide groups with the latest news and analysis on topics. The Winter 2012 Update is current as of January 13, 2012. Download the Winter 2012 Update as a PDF here.

by Leslie Huang, assistant editor

 

AFGHANISTAN.  On January 3, the Taliban announced plans to open a political office in Qatar, after months of talks with Tayeb Agha, a former member of Mullah Muhammad Omar’s government. A major reversal of the Taliban’s longtime refusal to enter into talks about the insurgency in Afghanistan, the new office will allow Western negotiators working for a comprehensive peace settlement to contact Taliban representatives or intermediaries.

Controversially, the U.S. is considering the transfer of high-security Guantánamo Bay detainees—such as former Taliban intelligence and defense officials and governors—to Afghan or Qatari custody. The Afghan government of President Hamid Karzai, however, responded angrily to the announcement and recalled its ambassador from Qatar.

In December, Karzai’s government began to disband the Critical Infrastructure Police, an irregular force established in part by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and financed by the U.S., amid concerns that some members of the force are former militiamen who might be used by regional strongmen to threaten the national government’s control.

In December, General John R. Allen, commander of U.S. forces in Afghanistan, indicated that U.S. and NATO forces could remain in the country after the 2014 withdrawal date. In separate remarks, Allen also indicated that the direct combat role of NATO would be scaled down in 2012. Although Western forces are gradually handing over security responsibilities to Afghan forces, the situation on the ground remains dangerous. In the first week of January, two roadside bombs and an insurgent attack killed eight NATO troops, with the Taliban claiming responsibility for one of the roadside bombs.

On November 26, a NATO airstrike killed 24 Pakistani soldiers at two military posts along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border. The attack, which came when relations between the U.S. and Pakistan were already acrimonious, sparked outrage in Pakistan and brought relations between the two countries to a new low. Initially, U.S. officials suggested that the Taliban may have lured NATO forces to attack the Pakistani outposts. The U.S. military’s inquiry into the attack stated that Pakistani troops had fired upon an Afghan-U.S. patrol on the border, and that the U.S. did not trust Pakistan enough to provide information about the location of Western troops. Pakistan has disputed this explanation and claimed that the attack was intentional, not accidental.


In response, Pakistan closed two NATO supply routes into Afghanistan, a move that affected approximately 40 percent of supplies entering that country. After Pakistan shut down the CIA base from which many of the drones are launched, the CIA did not resume its drone operations in Pakistan until early January.

IRAQ. On December 18, the last convoy of U.S. troops left Iraq, almost 9 years after the war began. Fewer than 200 U.S. military personnel remain in the country, primarily to guard the U.S. embassy and coordinate U.S.-Iraqi military relations. Days earlier, the U.S. handed over its last remaining prisoner, an alleged Hezbollah operative accused of aiding militants who killed five U.S. soldiers in 2007.
In the aftermath of the U.S. military’s departure, President Obama’s administration is moving forward with the sale of $11 billion of F-16 fighter jets, tanks and other weaponry to the Iraqi military. Critics of the sale are concerned that the Shi‘a government of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki is seeking to consolidate power and marginalize Iraqi Sunnis by turning the military into a sectarian Shi‘a force, and that the instability in Iraq could turn into a full-fledged civil war.

A comparatively rare string of attacks targeting Shi‘a Muslims spread across Iraq on January 5. Insurgents bombed pilgrims who were on their way to Karbala for the holiday of Arbaeen. At least 68 people were killed in those attacks, and another 63 people were killed on December 23 by a series of bombings carried out by al-Qaeda in Baghdad. In early January, the Islamic State of Iraq—a terrorist group linked to al-Qaeda—took responsibility for 37 bombings in Baghdad, including a number of attacks targeting Shi‘as as well as Iraqi military and police personnel.

Maliki’s government is facing growing internal tensions. In December, Maliki accused his vice president, Tariq al-Hashimi, of running a death squad and called for his arrest. A Sunni, al-Hashimi fled to the semi-autonomous Kurdish region, where he took refuge in the guest house of President Jalal Talabani. This political crisis has underscored sectarian as well as regional tensions in Iraq. Al-Hashimi stated that he is willing to stand trial, but has asked to move the trial from Baghdad, where he believes that Maliki controls the justice system, to Kirkuk. In recent weeks, Maliki’s security forces have arrested associates of opposition politicians. These moves against the Sunni minority threaten the existence of the Sunni, Shi‘a and Kurdish coalition government. Nevertheless, U.S. officials reasserted in December that the Obama administration will not send U.S. forces to Iraq, even in the event of a civil war.