April 17th, 2009

Next week South Africans will go to the polls for the fourth time in the post-Apartheid era. Millions will vote. But for what will they be voting?

It is difficult to imagine, even in a global media age where style reigns over substance, an election in a major democracy that could be less issue-oriented than the campaign taking place in South Africa. Ask even informed voters to articulate concrete differences between the African National Congress (ANC) and the upstart Congress of the People (COPE) that is likely to provide the ANC's sternest test, and you'll almost certainly receive blank stares or stammering. The reason is not that there is a lack of issues or shortage of serious policy wonks in South Africa. Rather we can chalk the absence of discussion over policies to the outsized clash of personalities that South African politics has become, and the fact that the parties themselves have failed to articulate their differences in any serious way. In the long run, this is not good for the country's still developing democracy.

The ghost hovering over the current campaign is that of Thabo Mbeki, the man who succeeded Nelson Mandela and served nearly all of two tumultuous terms before being forced out of office a few months ago amidst allegations of political machinations of Machiavellian contours. The target of Mbeki's scheming was Jacob Zuma, the ANC's president who had wrested control of the party from Mbeki, even as the latter played out his lame-duck presidency. Once allies, Zuma and Mbeki had developed an epic rivalry borne of wounded egos and petty grievances, exacerbated by Zuma's seemingly perpetual trouble with the law. Zuma was charged with and acquitted of rape charges and narrowly avoided facing a corruption trial that would have occupied the first months of any potential Zuma presidency.

Once Mbeki was ousted from office the ANC, already a tenuous coalition, truly began to fragment. For many, loyalty to Mbeki's wing of the party was a sufficient motivating factor in driving them away. But for others, Mbeki's woes merely provided a pretext for change. As the critical mass of dissidents grew, whisperings of a new party became a reality, and what emerged was the Congress of the People (COPE), a name that evoked the Freedom Charter movement of the 1950s and that implied the true spirit of the ANC resided in a new home. Some of the ANC's heavy hitters abandoned their historic political home to join the dissidents, including the so-called “Shikota” pairing of the party's president, Mosiuoa “Terror” Lekota, and his deputy, Mbhazima Shilowa. Former bishop Mvume Dandala stands at the top of the COPE ticket, and while many fear that he is too nice for down-in-the-dirt politicking, his gracious ways might serve him well among masses who have seen enough of that dirt.

The reality is that the ANC has too much history, holds the loyalty of too many, retains advantages in infrastructure and organization, and of course, has more experience than any of its rivals. Most significantly, though, it has more money than its challengers, including both COPE, the Democratic Alliance – which would like folks to remember that it is the official opposition party – and myriad smaller parties. Simply put, the ANC is going to win the April 22 elections. Of that there is little doubt.

But the crucial question is: How will the ANC win? And will the Congress of the People prove to be a transient party born of grievance or will it prove to be the true opposition party that appeals to the country's masses and poses a real alternative to the ANC? Can COPE pull off enough votes in, say, the Eastern Cape, historically a hotbed of political activity and the apparent epicenter of the party's strength to give it a provincial stronghold? Can the party garner enough support to make it the official opposition?

And what of the Democratic Alliance? It too has its geographic strength. The party standard bearer, Helen Zille, believes that the DA will maintain its support base in the Western Cape and will continue to be the largest opposition party. This is, admittedly, unlikely – the DA is perceived, fairly or not, as a predominantly white party of so-called liberals who are nonetheless still anxious about black rule. It is difficult to imagine a scenario in which COPE, assuming it survives as a legitimate party, does not supplant the DA. Indeed, the minimum standard for COPE ought to be to surpass the DA's national results from 2004. Nonetheless, the DA whistles past the graveyard because, well, what else can it do? Plus, the DA should be in the position of being able to play the ANC and COPE against one another, and perhaps even to represent a constituency that both of those parties not only desire, but in fact need in order to be able to govern.

And then there is the ANC itself. Bent but hardly broken, the party and its stalwarts would love to deliver a knockout punch to COPE, in the process humiliating the dissidents for their apostasy. Nonetheless, the ANC is more vulnerable than it has ever been in the post-Apartheid era. Zuma inspires passionate support in some corners, but he is equally feared and loathed in others, and if too many voters find the idea of a Zuma presidency disquieting, Wednesday's elections might shock the ANC. Whether those shocks jar the party from the complacency that many believe unleavened power has given them, or instead pushes the party to try to consolidate its power remains to be seen. And perhaps the COPE threat really is seductive but hollow, posing far more danger to the DA than to the ANC. Whatever the outcome, it seems clear that the days of the ANC pulling more than 60 percent of the national vote are in danger of ending next week. The question will be just how close to the 50 percent mark COPE, the DA, and the smaller parties can drag the ANC.

Nonetheless, whatever divides the ANC from the Congress of the People, it has little to do with ideology, policy, or platforms. Rather, it has everything to do with the politics of personality that seemed to serve the country so well when Nelson Mandela was the personality involved, but now threaten the very spirit of one of Africa's most important democracies.

Note: Part 2 of this essay will assess the elections.

Derek Catsam is the FPA's Africa blogger. He is a history professor at the University of Texas of the Permian Basin and writes about race and politics in the United States and Africa. His latest book, Freedom's Main Line: The Journey of Reconciliation and the Freedom Rides, was published earlier this year.