Immigration: A Presidential matter?

In just over a week, the French electorate will take to the ballot boxes in the first round of the Presidential election. While the result of the vote is still too close to call - with all four main candidates still firmly in the running - the race for the 42% of the “undecided” French electorate is on. Newest polls show that despite a slow start, far-right candidate Jean-Marie Le Pen is making headway. Le Pen has even accused leading mainstream candidates Nicolas Sarkozy and Ségolène Royal of “stealing” his ideas. These two are emerging as the most likely to face a run-off vote in May. An analysis of their views on immigration and national identity proves that Le Pen is not entirely incorrect. A ‘race to the right' is on in mainstream French politics, forcing Le Pen to resort to the most extreme of ideas to set himself apart. A recent survey conducted for conservative daily, Le Figaro revealed that 56% of those interviewed believed that mastering immigration would be an important issue for the next government. Indeed, one in four of those questioned saw it as a priority. It is unsurprising, then, that the front-runners in this election have placed a premium on emphasizing questions of national identity and migration-related issues. Socialist party candidate, Ségolène Royal has called for French flags in every household. Meanwhile, her center-right opposite, Nicolas Sarkozy of the UMP, has detected an “exasperation” among his countrymen, when faced with “the dispute about national identity, by uncontrolled immigration, by fraud and by waste.” Sarkozy's proposal for a ministry of national identity and immigration (whose exact functions remain elusive) has found a wide approval rating, 88%, among voters of the right-wing Front National chaired by none other than Le Pen. Needless to say, 68% of French Socialist Party supporters reject the UMP candidate's arguments. Despite the absence of clear, convincing arguments for both of these ideas, populist arguments traditionally advocated by the right-wing Front National are shaping the debate.

A closer look

Le Pen's 2002 Presidential campaign vividly proved that immigration control was a key issue for the French electorate. To swing votes in his favor, Sarkozy has reframed the immigration issue as a matter of internal security, continuing the policy of clamping down on illegal immigrants by increasing the duration of administrative detention, facilitating expulsion, reinforcing the housing certificate, and making family reunification for migrants all the more difficult. In July 2006 he unveiled a program that would allow France to select migrants based on economic need through a points-based system “irrespective of the interests of the countries of origin.” In a contradictory move, he wants to sign co-development agreements like the one with Senegal dating back to September 2006, to promote a “concerted migration policy.” If elected President, Sarkozy wants to come down hard on family reunification as a loophole for bringing people into the country. Under this policy, immigrants would have to prove that they can provide for their family in terms of housing and employment. All family members looking to come to France must have proven French language skills. Sarkozy's proposed fixed annual ceilings in every migration category (i.e. economic migrants, asylum seekers, and family reunification) would correspond with the integration capacity and needs of France. He has also made a blanket promise to deport 25,000 illegal immigrants this year. Socialist Royal plans to reverse many of the recent immigration laws, following a long-standing policy of Socialist governments. Royal wants to reintroduce regularization procedures for resident illegal migrants after ten years of residency. Analysts point out that despite the cutthroat rhetoric on regularization from the Sarkozy camp, more illegals have been regularized this year than in 2005. Nevertheless, she wants to see regularization on a case-by-case basis, depending on employment status, the enrollment of children in French schools and the elusive “personal attachment” to the country. She plans to introduce a new type of visa to facilitate return and re-entry of labor migrants based on France's economic need in an effort to “lend credibility to the fight against illegal migration” and supports the European Union's approach toward increased development aid for African countries. Painfully aware of the inroads Sarkozy is making with the traditional FN-electorate, Jean-Marie Le Pen is struggling to demarcate his position in the last few days before the vote. Unsurprisingly, he wants to put an end to all new migration and assimilate only those willing to “renounce connections to any other countries.” Family reunification would become a thing of the past and foreign workers would no longer have access to welfare payments. With Sarkozy pulling far ahead in the polls, Le Pen has had to reach further into his populist arsenal, accusing him of being “in favor of a right to vote for foreigners” (EU citizens can vote in local elections in all other Member States by EU law), wanting to bring more migrants in through his points system and diluting the school system with foreigners that can't speak French. The recent riots at one of Paris' main train stations prove the failure of Sarkozy's policies, in his eyes. Unlike Sarkozy, Le Pen and his campaign-manager daughter have made a point of visiting volatile suburbs, in an attempt to court the French-immigrant vote, while Sarkozy blames his calendar for the inability to meet with his harshest critics. In his view, the only way to save France is to wrest national sovereignty back from the European Union and reinstitute borders. Unfortunately for M. Le Pen, these arguments are easily deconstructed and are unlikely to sway Sarkozy supporters for his cause. Notably absent from all party programs is the issue of integration. All four front-runners make no mention of resolving the alienation of precisely those immigrant youths who rioted for weeks in the suburbs of the country's major cities, prompting President Chirac to declare a national state of emergency in 2005. Royal attempts to break up the “ghetto-ization” of schools, by revisiting the school district card system, but beyond their employment programs, candidates offer no concrete policy prescriptions targeting those that feel abandoned by the establishment.

History repeated?

Despite the introduction of restrictive immigration and residency policies by then-interior minister Sarkozy in July 2006, the tense situations are far from resolved, as proved by recent riots at the Gare du Nord train station. Political analysts agree that they are the long-term results of a failure to formulate comprehensive immigration policies, an over-reliance on the French school system to serve as the great equalizer and the impact of high youth unemployment. Since the early 1980s, when the Front National began claiming mayoral seats in local elections, France's mainstream parties have been unable to formulate a comprehensive, lasting, regulated migration policy respective of French economic interests and international responsibilities, as they have focused their efforts toward staving off the FN. According to analyst Maxim Silverman the period until the end of the 1990s was marked by a growth of “contradictions between integration and control and immigration became a political and electoral football,” between changing conservative and socialist governments, leaving immigrants in a volatile situation. Other factors such as the degree of mobilization of immigrant rights groups and the provisions of European Treaties on visa, asylum and immigration issues played a role in shaping these policies, but far less so than the threat of losing the next election. All but one candidate in this election have realized that France needs choice migrants to address the inevitable demographic downturn and the already existing skills gaps in certain industries. What is missing in France, as in many other European economies, is a language that allays voters' fears. What France needs is an integrated approach toward diffusing the ghetto-like suburbs and innovative ways of offering migrant youths new perspectives through skills training and other forms of education. Jean-Marie Le Pen doesn't have to win a place in the second round of the presidential elections – his ideas already have. The traditions of control, assimilation sold as multi-culturalism and a distinctly French way of conducting immigration policy continues. As long as “républicanisme” remains a malleable concept that excludes the contribution migrants have made to modern French society (many of whom have become French citizens), flip-flop politics will continue, leaving the country's 4 million immigrants to fend for themselves. Cathryn A. Clüver is the co-editor of the FPA Migration blog (with Rich Basas). The blog features an in-depth look at the historical developments of immigration policy in France ahead of the April 22nd presidential vote. Cathryn is a journalist and EU analyst based in Hamburg, Germany. She has written extensively on immigration, most recently as the Deputy Editor of “Challenge Europe” the public policy journal published by the European Policy Centre in Brussels, Belgium. She holds a BA with honors in International Relations from Brown University and a Masters of Science in European Studies from the London School of Economics and Political Science. Cathryn can be reached at Cathryn_Cluver@yahoo.com. Articles appearing in Analysis do not represent the views of the Foreign Policy Association and are the sole opinions of the author. If you have an article you'd like to to be considered for Viewpoints, email an inquiry to editor@fpa.org.