Francis Fukuyama, Professor of International Political Economy at Johns Hopkins University's Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, addressed the New York Democracy Forum, a joint venture of the National Endowment for Democracy and the Foreign Policy Association, on democracy promotion.  Fukuyama discussed a number of issues related to U.S. aims concerning democracy promotion, highlighting the fact that no matter how sincere or effective American efforts to promote democracy may be, democratic transition is only sustainable “by people who want to live in democratic societies.”

Fukuyama also offered his thoughts on a variety of conditions that help facilitate or hinder democratic growth, including socio-economic development, culture, geographic location and ideas, and discussed the lessons of past American experiences with democracy promotion, both through example and by force. 

Full transcript and video available in PDF below.



Excerpts from the address:

On forcible regime change and democratic transition:

“Forcible regime change really creates as many problems as it solves because you are the primary agent that is pushing change, and it is not any longer driven by the society, so the ownership of the transformation society gets very clouded, and unless the local people think they own the democracy that they are creating, it creates a lot of problems, and it creates resistance unless there is a clear moral basis for the American role.”

On the limits of democracy promotion:

“This kind of democracy promotion does not work everywhere.  The United States or the international community or the Europeans do not have the ability to say, well, we want democracy in such and such a country and we are going to use these levers to get it.  The movement really has to wait for a certain ripening, and furthermore, it really does not happen in any but a semi-authoritarian society.  If a ruler is not willing to hold an election that can be falsified then this kind of sequence of events cannot happen.”

On democracy and the Middle East:

“We've certainly seen big cracks in the façade of Arab authoritarianism after the Iraq election, in Lebanon, which is going to trigger things in Syria.  In Egypt, Mubarak has shown he is not impervious to the demands from his biggest allies for some kind of democratic opening.  I have no doubt whatsoever that the whole region has a great deal of pent up demand for democratic change.

On the negative side, however, I think we have to be a little bit realistic about both the region and also about the United States itself.  I believe at this point in our history, the United States is unfortunately the wrong agent for promoting change in this region.  We had a general idea that by toppling Saddam Hussein we would set off political reverberations and that might help, but we have to confront the fact that American credibility in this part of the world is disastrously low.”

On democracy promotion as policy:

“I don't think that people in Washington have made up their minds if they truly want democracy in the Middle East if it means destabilizing important allies and opening the door to Islamists coming to power.  The president has said quite explicitly, let the chips fall where they may, this is the course that we are on.  I guess we have to take him at his word.  It is a pretty big leap to make to say that in Egypt or Saudi Arabia you are willing to take the chances of a really free and open democratic process.  My personal belief is that we should do this.”

On the challenges of democracy promotion:

“The United States does not actually promote democracy anywhere.  Democracy is promoted by people who want to live in democratic societies.  We can be helpful, and we can be helpful to the point where it makes a difference between success and failure, but I think we have to understand that democracy promotion is a kind of opportunistic activity that will remain an important component of American foreign policy, but will be a process that we are never able to really control or master, because the whole process of democracy itself is pretty messy.”