Does Russia pose a real threat to U.S. objectives around the globe, or is it an over-hyped power? FPA contributors Sean Goforth and Andrew Swift make the case for each.
Read "Rising Russia" a false narrative by Andrew Swift
October 22, 2009
In 2001 President Bush said he had “a sense” of Vladimir Putin's soul. Chided as a gaffe, in truth the comment aptly signifies the aloof conciliation long practiced in the West. Over the last decade the United States and Western Europe have viewed Russia, if not wholly Western, as a partner with fundamentally similar interests. This approach has been a strategic failure and it is time for a change. Russia under Putin is not a meaningful ally of the West. The sooner the United States and Europe realize this the more effectively they can manage today's major foreign policy challenges.
Russia undermines America's waning preeminence by fostering close ties with regimes like Iran and Venezuela. Venezuela has purchased more than $4 billion in armaments from Russia of late, including last month's loan for Chavez to buy $2.2 billion in air defense systems and tanks. Russia also agreed to sell its advanced S-300 weapons system to Iran, though it recently bowed to American and Israeli pressure and delayed delivery. Operating such a system would allow Iran to shield itself from an attack on, say, a nuclear installation. Furthermore, Russia is helping Iran build at least one of its nuclear reactors and Putin has pledged technical support for Venezuela's nuclear ambitions. Arming these regimes has amplified their belligerence and encircled key American allies, namely Colombia and Israel, in hostile regions.
The threat posed to Europe is more direct. Seven of 27 EU nations are almost completely dependent on Russian gas fed through Eastern Europe. If Russia shuts off gas to extract concessions from a neighbor to the east, Western Europe is left in a lurch. Such occurrences are hardly anomalies. A 2006 Swedish Defense Ministry study cites more than 20 examples of politically driven gas cut-offs under Putin's presidency. Since then, the impact of cut-offs has been more acute. A dispute with Ukraine last January resulted in Russia turning off natural gas supplies for days, leading some of the 18 European nations affected to declare a state of emergency and sparking protests. To outward appearances Eastern Europe is a problematic transit route because of political chaos. This is largely thanks to pro-Russia parties, which have sprung up in Latvia, Moldova, and Ukraine. They rehash old debates and take contradictory positions on legislation, inciting discord and paralyzing government.
Conveniently, Russia proclaims the antidote—two pipelines designed to bypass “unreliable” intermediaries like Ukraine. By separating supply routes Russia aims to strategically isolate Eastern Europe. With a spigot delivering gas directly to Germany from the Baltic Sea, Western sensitivity to Eastern European affairs will wane. Gas cut-offs to Eastern Europe could then occur “on whim,” according to Zbigniew Brzezinski, as means of cajoling acquiescence to Moscow. Fearing as much, a letter to President Obama last year signed by 23 heavyweights of Eastern European politics, including Vaclav Havel and Lech Walesa, stated, “Russia is back as a revisionist power pursuing a 19th-century agenda with 21st century tactics.”
No doubt, Russia is reeling from the global recession; the ruble has depreciated 40%, and Russia's international reserves have dropped by more than $200 billion since August 2008. Attending the global recession Russia has participated in naval exercises with Venezuela in the Caribbean, large-scale war games with Belarus codenamed ‘Zapad' (‘West'), and a war with Georgia that has resulted in the de facto seizure of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. (The Economist reports high-level Russian leaders viewed the war with Georgia as a proxy war against America.) Events since mid-2008 indicate a weakening economy only emboldens the Kremlin.
Rest assured, the possibility of direct military confrontation between Russia and the U.S., or a European power, is quite small. But Russia subverts Western order. Along the edges of the Western realm, shrewd strategy is tilting the balance of power in Moscow's favor. Through arms sales and technical support, to say nothing of Security Council wrangling (Russia watered down existing sanctions against Iran and Putin dismissed recent calls for stiffer sanctions, saying, “There is no need to scare the Iranians”), Russia quietly engenders the mayhem being sewn by Ahmadinejad and Chavez. And in its own backyard the Kremlin now asserts “privileged interests” not just along Russian borders but “elsewhere.” Translation: Russia now claims a sphere of influence that overlaps NATO. Such rhetoric is slowly materializing thanks to Moscow's gas bypass procedure. Subject to ongoing gas cut-offs, Western-leaning governments in Eastern Europe will be left in the cold to endure the brunt of Russian expansionism.
If nothing changes in the minds of Western policymakers, they will continue to be confounded by grand gestures that aren't reciprocated. The West should wake-up. A realistic ‘reset' must first take place in the minds of Western policymakers before a fruitful relationship with Russia can be had.
Sean H. Goforth teaches world politics and international political economy at Coastal Carolina University in Conway, SC. He blogs on Mexico and other issues for the Foreign Policy Association.