Testing Democracy in Afghanistan

June 17, 2004

by Robert Nolan

As President Bush and Afghan leader Hamid Karzai met this week in Washington to discuss Afghanistan's future, references to Iraq were anything but subtle. Thanking the United States for “liberating” Afghanistan and helping to end a “rule of terrorism”, Karzai was undoubtedly concerned that fall elections in the U.S. and those expected to take place by January, 2005 in Iraq would continue to overshadow the fledgling democracy struggling to take root in the Central Asian nation. Though Afghanistan's own elections, slated to take place in September, are threatened by continued violence against development workers and security forces, Karzai pledged to continue to fight for the international resources needed to push his country forward.

The Rose Garden

While increasing violence in Iraq continued to dominate this week's headlines, Karzai was at least able to share the spotlight this week as he met with President Bush. He did not go home empty handed. “The United States and I will continue to make it clear that we will not abandon those who are building free societies, whether it be in Afghanistan or whether it be in Iraq,” said Bush. Adding substance to the statement, Bush indicated that the U.S. would implement five new initiatives aimed at creating a stable, democratic Afghanistan. The initiatives are: $5 million for start-up grants to small businesses run by women, $4 million to a teacher - training institute for women, the promotion of a free-trade agreement, help in printing text books and building schools, specialized training for elected politicians and expanded cultural exchange programs for young scholars, reported the Indianapolis Star.

Such support would add to the $2.2 billion already committed by the United States to rebuilding Afghanistan, a number that some have criticized as miniscule compared to the $18.6 billion earmarked for reconstruction in Iraq. Despite the gap in funding for reconstruction, Afghanistan has showed some lasting signs of progress. The creation of a constitution widely accepted by most Afghans, the ongoing construction of schools and efforts to integrate women into society provide just a few examples of such success, and could offer lessons for those seeking to make similar headway in Iraq. Karzai “is one of the most attractive faces of nation building right now,” Rick Barton, director of a post-conflict reconstruction project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies told the Los Angeles Times. “If he can become the face of ‘Iraqistan' that will help us.”

Progress has also been made on voter registration for the elections. Karzai said that the central government had registered 3.8 million of more than 10 million eligible voters for the September election, with 35 percent of them being women. Such efforts could make Afghanistan an “example of a transition to democracy from a former pariah state,” said International Crisis Group senior analyst Vikram Parekh, in a report from Channel News Asia.

“Will they be perfect elections? Will we have the same kind of strong democracy that we enjoy in the Western countries?” asked Canadian Lieutenant-Colonel Rick Hiller, speaking on behalf of the NATO-backed International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) that provides peacekeeping in Afghanistan. “Probably not, obviously, but that is why we are here – to support Afghans in getting to that stage,” he said.

Security

According to many security experts, however, getting there will not be easy. Like Iraq, Afghanistan has been plagued by attacks on civilian contractors and international peacekeeping troops. Most recently, a remote control bomb aimed at ISAF forces near the city of Kunduz killed two Afghan civilians, just one week after 11 Chinese construction workers were shot dead near the same city. The international humanitarian group Doctors Without Borders and a British aid organization have also recently come under attack.

Kunduz, located in the northern part of Afghanistan, is the first base established by the 6,500-strong ISAF outside of Kabul, and is as part of an effort to create “islands of security” in the nation's less stable regions. “Private militias pose a threat to the consolidation of stability and democracy in our country,” said Karzai in Washington, noting that warlords “continue to oppress people and challenge law, order and government authority” outside of the capital, Kabul. Canadian Lieutenant-Colonel Hiller indicated that NATO would expand ISAF forces to two more northern provinces before the September elections.

“The main problem and challenge ahead of Afghanistan's elections is security,” said Kabul University academic Nasrullah Staniczai. “I believe that if the international community really, fully supports the Afghan government, there is a possibility of holding elections in September, but they will be highly symbolic elections because the will not be able to cover the whole country.” One of the problems facing election organizers is the inability to register voters in the provinces where warlords continue to control large patches.

Those seeking to bolster elections complain that unless such forces are disarmed and dealt with, elections may have to be postponed. The alternative is that they will be viewed as illegitimate. “Civil society organizations continue to report that the Afghan people they are working with throughout the country question how free and fair elections can be held without a meaningful DDR [Disarmament, Demobilization and Re-integration] process,” said Barbara Stapleton of the Agency Coordinating Body for Afghan Relief. “There is now a very real danger that holding elections before the country is ready will end any chance of democratic process before it has begun.”

International Effort

If the democratic dreams of Afghanistan are to be realized, say most analysts, a more coordinated effort on security issues is needed in addition to more forces and more funds. The 20,000 strong U.S. force in Afghanistan has largely been relegated to fighting remaining elements of the Taliban regime near the Pakistani border, where they continue to search for al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden. NATO members continue to balk at sending more troops, citing other commitments in Iraq and the Balkans, and the training of the new Afghan army has not proceeded as rapidly as planned due to a lack of resources. “In a country such as Afghanistan, law and order must be backed by force of arms,” writes The Economist. “But that force is hopelessly dispersed among the American counter-terrorists, the ISAF peacekeepers, the Afghan militias and the ragtag army.”

Hillier is feeling the pinch. “The challenge is getting nations to contribute the force levels needed,” he told a reporter from the St. Louis Dispatch. “You can't underestimate the importance of presence and visibility, the psychology and comfort that brings. The people here want us present, visible, out on our feet.”

In Washington, Karzai seemed to agree, asking NATO leaders, who meet later this month in Istanbul, to live up to their commitment in Afghanistan. “We are hoping that NATO will come to Afghanistan, especially before the elections of September,” said Karzai, according to the Pakistan Tribune. “If it is evenly distributed throughout the country it will be the best thing,” he said, adding that, “The election is a must.”

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