Pakistan: The Most Allied Ally in Asia

By Robert Nolan

President Bush isn't the only head of state facing difficult decisions in the aftermath of last week's terrorist attacks on the United States. General Pervez Musharraf of Pakistan, who has pledged the assistance of the largely Muslim state in the fight against terrorism, will be forced to decide exactly how much support to lend a possible American assault on neighboring Afghanistan. "By aligning Islamabad so firmly behind the U.S. , President Musharraf has embarked on a course that is likely to prove deeply unpopular with Pakistan's 140 million people," said a report in the Financial Times, referring to protests today in Islambad by pro-Taliban groups opposed to the kind of cooperation offered to American forces by Saudi Arabia in the 1991 Persian Gulf War. It was this Saudi accommodation that later triggered accused terrorist Osama bin Laden's jihad against the United States.

Most analysts believe that Musharraf, who took power in a bloodless coup in 1999, may not have much of a choice. "American officials had told Musharraf's government that Washington would use every lever short of war to punish Pakistan unless it cooperated," read a front-page article by John Burns in the New York Times. Once referred to as "the most allied ally in Asia" by former Pakistani leader Ayub Khan, the Central Asian nation has once again become a key player in international crisis -- this time by default. "The U.S. would be severely hampered in Afghanistan without Pakistan's intelligence resources," said a former adviser to successive Pakistani prime ministers in the Financial Times report. "The question is how much intelligence Pakistan would be prepared to offer." But U.S. officials en route to Islamabad are not asking for cooperation; they are demanding it. "If Musharraf doesn't go along with the Americans, he will be squeezed - but if he goes with the Americans, there will be a strong domestic backlash," said Rashed Rehman, editor of the Frontier Post newspaper in Peshawar, which borders Afghanistan.

Some of that backlash could come from the nation's pro-Taliban political and religious parties. "Most of Pakistan's 140 million people are devout but relatively moderate Muslims," said a report from the Associated Press. "But there are several strong militant Islamic groups operating in the country and thousands of religious schools that turn out young boys dedicated to jihad -- holy war. Most of these militant groups are well armed and could pose a threat to the rule of President Gen. Musharraf." Dennis Kux, in "Pakistan: Flawed not Failed State" points out the Pakistan's Jamiat-ul-Ulema-e-Islam party has ties to that Taliban dating back to the early 1990's. Indeed, it was this party that pressured Islamabad to shift its support to the emerging Taliban movement in 1994. Over this past weekend, this same party vowed to oppose any Pakistani support for U.S. activities in the region. Today, the Washington Post is reporting that Pakistani Islamic groups warned that the United States "would be taking on the entire Muslim world" if it attacks Afghanistan, and they said they would "declare a holy war to defend both Afghan and Pakistani sovereignty" if such an attack comes.

It is now up to Musharraf to try to sell to moderates in Pakistan the benefits of cooperation with the United States. "Musharraf's Government was doing some tough bargaining with the Bush administration in return for its unqualified support for operations against the Taliban," said the B. Muralidhar Reddy in the India Hindu. "Some conditions, reportedly put forth by Pakistan, include U.S. role in resolution of the Kashmir dispute, a financial package to bail out the country from its present economic crisis and a guarantee to keep India and Israel out of any possible operation against the Taliban." The Financial Times notes the subtle tone being used by Pakistan to obtain its economic and political objectives. "Officials are careful publicly to rule out any linkage between Pakistan's pledge of full co-operation with the US and its desire for economic concessions, but debt forgiveness is clearly on the agenda," it said. As one senior official noted: "A generous understanding of our economic situation would make it much easier for Musharraf to sell all of this to the Pakistani public."

Even if Musharraf can make the sale, he still faces a number of growing domestic issues, including a wave of Afghan refugees and the Taliban's threat of retaliation against neighboring nations cooperating in a U.S. attack on Kabul. "The president is aware that whatever he is going to do will create some problems for Pakistan and he may see a reaction from the general public,'' said Hamid Meer, editor of Aussas newspaper, in a Reuters report.

The United States' "most allied ally in Asia" is not necessarily so by choice. The U.S. told us: "You are either with us or you are against us," said a senior official in Islamabad in the Financial Times. "Under the circumstances, we had no option but to sign up."