Forging the “new” Sudan

August 11, 2005

by Robert Nolan

While John Garang's arrival in Khartoum last month helped solidify the so-called Comprehensive Peace Agreement between the rebel Sudan Peoples Liberation Army and the government of Omar al-Bashir, tentatively ending 21 years of north-south civil war, his recent death in a helicopter accident has put the dream of a united Sudan on pause. As Garang's successor Salva Kiir is officially sworn in as Vice President of Sudan this week, power jockeying within the SPLA and a chain-reaction of events set off by Garang's death have long-time observers of Sudan questioning the future of the fragile peace agreement, and many have called on the international community to help prevent a return to fighting.

From man to myth

It was only one month ago that John Garang, leader of the rebel Sudan Peoples Liberation Army (SPLA) and newly appointed vice president of Sudan, marched into Khartoum to the cheers of more than one million Sudanese whose dreams of an end to two decades of civil war were on the verge of manifestation. “My presence here in Khartoum is a true signal that the war is over,” a triumphant Garang declared his arrival. Just three weeks later, Garang's helicopter went down in bad weather following meetings in the Ugandan capital of Kampala, taking the charismatic leader's life and throwing the future of the fledgling Comprehensive Peace Agreement into question.

Rioting in Khartoum and the southern Sudanese city of Juba following the announcement of Garang's death that left more than 130 people dead did little to assuage fears the event would lead to what one expert called a “dangerous void” in the south's leadership. Conflict analyst Thomas Palmer told South Africa's Mail and Guardian that, “There are simply not enough quality leaders within the ranks of the SPLM to ensure a faithful adherence to the peace protocol,” adding that, “Garang was the central – if not only – figure of substance in regional politics.”

Indeed, Garang has been almost single handedly credited with forging a peace agreement between often disparate, mostly Christian southern factions and the Islamic government in Khartoum. “Like so many gifted, driven and charismatic leaders, Mr. Garang was both the force behind the rebel coalition of Christian and animist peoples that battled for 20 years to share power with the Islamist regime in Khartoum – and the glue that held this conglomeration of ethnic groups together,” said a Baltimore Sun editorial. The shockwaves following Garang's death, the paper opines, “offer a poignant reminder of how vital one individual can be to a movement that affects millions.”

Also critical to the pending peace was Garang's desire for unity with the north – an ideal many within the SPLA do not share, preferring instead greater autonomy from Khartoum. “Garang was a fair man who was adamant that the southern Sudanese themselves would decide on whether or not to separate from Khartoum – but obviously his support for a unified Sudan would have carried massive weight,” one observer told South Africa's Mail and Guardian. “Most northerners actually liked John Garang because he wanted unity.”

Big shoes to fill

Though Garang continues to be lionized throughout Sudan and an investigation has been launched into the conditions surrounding the helicopter crash, attention has now turned to his successor, SPLA general Salva Kiir, who was officially sworn in as the new Vice President of Sudan this week. While critics say Kiir lacks the diplomatic skills of his predecessor, he has vowed to follow through on the peace deal. “As sure as day follows night, the torch [Garang] has kindled shall not be extinguished, not under my command.” Kiir said at the fallen leader's funeral. “The tragic loss of out leader has strengthened our resolve to stay united as a nation and as a people.”

Southern unity, says Sudan expert Cobie Kwasi Harris, is critical for the survival of the peace agreement. “If Garang's successor, Salva Kiir Mayardit, who is a Dinka, cannot keep the Nuer, Dinka and Shilluk together, Sudan may truly become a failed state evenly divided by Arab, African, Christian and Islamic sectarianism.” John Prendergast, a special advisor to the International Crisis Group in Sudan, agrees. “The key to implementing the peace deal John Garang negotiated is for the SPLM to hold together,” he said in a Reuters report. “If the movement unravels, the peace agreement will as well.”

But holding together southern Sudan's tribal factions is only half of the challenge facing Kiir. Though Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir also promised to implement the peace agreement “letter by letter, until the last letter,” many say hardliners in Khartoum distrust Kiir, a one-time advocate of greater autonomy and even succession from the north. “Most SPLM insiders say that without Dr. Garang, Mr. Kiir would have resisted a deal with the Khartoum government,” says a report in the East African. Gaining the faith of Khartoum, say analysts, will be a critical component of Kiir's credibility in implementation of the peace deal. “Kiir is going to be severely tested by the National Islamic Front, which dominates the new government in Khartoum,” says Sudan expert Eric Reeves in Foreign Policy Magazine. “His secessionist credentials will follow him, and he will be considered with great suspicion by those in power.”

Still, others say Kiir is just the man for the job, citing his widespread support within the SPLA, a history of pragmatism and his willingness to negotiate. “Kiir is powerful and consistently underestimated,” said Alex de Waal of Harvard University in a Newsday report. “He has formidable political skills and is widely respected in the south.” Others praise Kiir for his democratic leadership style, something many say was lacking within the SPLA under Garang. “Although few are saying it openly, the consensus among most Sudan-watchers, and many southerners too, is that a South Sudan government led by Salva will be more democratic, more conciliatory and more efficient than a government led by Garang,” Julie Flint reports for the BBC.

In a recent interview with Newsweek, Kiir acknowledged he has big shoes to fill, and said he prefers to lead by example. “There is no other way I can convince them other than by my deeds,” he said. “Then, I think people will again gather their hopes.”

International Assistance

While most analysts say the Comprehensive Peace Agreement cannot be salvaged without strong participation from all Sudanese players, a concerted call for international assistance has been raised. Those seeking to bolster the agreement have called on the U.S. and the United Nations in particular to play an active role in stabilizing the situation. “The UN mission in southern Sudan should swiftly spread its peacekeepers throughout the region. They are needed to cut off arms supplies to militias, protect the civilian population, and intervene quickly wherever militias initiate violence,” says a Boston Globe editorial. “The world has a chance to help end the most lethal conflict of the past two decades. Garang's death must not become an excuse for allowing southern Sudan to relapse into the disasters of war.”

Others sought to remind U.S. officials of their past influence over the regime in Khartoum. “The U.S. government and other governments need to bring real pressure to bear on Khartoum to deploy all necessary security forces to keep this under control,” says Sudan expert Reeves, a point reiterated by a number of commentators, including Harvard's Rebecca Hamilton. “With strong and consistent U.S. pressure,” she writes in the International Herald Tribune, “it might still be possible that after two million deaths and two decades of war, the phrase ‘when peace comes' could be something more than wishful thinking for the people of southern Sudan.”

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