The Kremlin's Choice for Chechnya

August 23, 2004

by Sergei Borisov
Originaly in Transitions Online (TOL)

The presidential election in Chechnya is just days away, but Moscow has already

cast its highly influential vote.

Moscow's Vote

ULYANOVSK, Russia--Russian President Vladimir Putin unexpectedly dropped into

Chechnya on 22 August for a birthday tribute to the late Chechen President Akhmad

Kadyrov.

On what would have been Kadyrov’s 53rd birthday, Putin arrived by helicopter

in the Chechen village of Tsentoroi to lay flowers on the assassinated leader’s

grave. He was joined by Kadyrov’s son, Ramzan, and the man the Kremlin

hopes will be Kadyrov’s successor, Chechen Interior Minister Alu Alkhanov.

During the short visit--state news agencies reported that Putin arrived in

Tsentoroi around 7:30 a.m. and was back at his Black Sea holiday residence near

Sochi, where he has been for a week, by 11 a.m.--Putin’s comments were

broadcast on state television. "We lost a sincere, manly, talented, and

exceptionally decent person,” he said of Kadyrov. “He had no aim

other than to serve his people.”

Kadyrov was killed in a terrorist bombing in Grozny on 9 May. After a few weeks

of casting about for a candidate to replace him, the Kremlin decided to throw

its support behind Alkhanov (ending speculation that the late president’s

27-year-old son might get the nod). Moscow’s stamp of approval raised

Alkhanov’s profile far above the six other candidates who are competing

for the post in the 29 August elections.

The other candidates hold a variety of senior government, business, and academic

posts: There is the director-general of the Chechen oil enterprise Chechenneftekhimprom,

Umar Abuev; the director-general of the Nedr company, Magomed Aidamirov; a staff

member from the Chechen State Council, Mukhumd-Khassan Assakov; director of

the Goryachiye Istochniki department of the Modern Humanitarian Academy, Abdula

Bugaev; Chechen presidential adviser Vakha Visaev; and a top official in the

Chechen security directorate, Movsur Khamidov.

Chechen Election Commission chairman Abdulkerim Arsakhanov told Interfax that

two candidates were not permitted to register: Moscow businessman Malik Saidullaev

and Zura Magomadova, general director of the Moscow-based company Dika.

Turnout in Sunday’s election is expected to be high, according to the

Chechen Ministry on National Politics, Information, and External Relations,

which predicts some 70 percent of voters will go to the polls.

Most of them seem ready to cast their vote for Alkhanov: ITAR-TASS reported

on 19 August that 53.5 percent of the people it polled said they planned to

vote for the interior minister.

TALKING PEACE

Alkhanov has portrayed himself as the keeper of Kadyrov’s flame. “The

cause started by Akhmad Kadyrov, his course and [his] policy will be continued

by his associates and colleagues,” he said recently, according to RIA

Novosti.

Still, the late leader’s son, Ramzan Kadyrov, recently had to quash rumors

that he was supporting Vakha Visaev. He told journalists that the reports were

an attempt to split the Chechen leadership. Alkhanov himself told Nezavisimaya

Gazeta on 20 August, “Ramzan Kadyrov, as one of the leaders of the republic,

has not been supporting anyone [in particular].” And he added at a press

conference at Interfax headquarters in Moscow on 18 August that regardless of

the outcome of the 29 August ballot, Kadyrov should remain in command of Chechnya's

law enforcement agencies.

While that was a positive, though not unexpected, sign for Kadyrov’s

clan, no one expected Alkhanov to announce--during a meeting with Chechen representatives

from around Russia--that if elected, he would be open to holding talks with

former Chechen President Aslan Maskhadov.

"If Maskhadov wants peace in Chechnya, if Maskhadov says, 'I understand,

I know, and I see that this path is not leading the republic and the people

to prosperity, quiet life, and peace,' why not hold talks with him?" he

said, according to Interfax on 18 August.

The current Chechen leadership has no contacts with Maskhadov or any other

representatives of the resistance. RIA-Novosti reported on 20 August that Moscow

“categorically rejects holding political talks with the separatist leader

Aslan Maskhadov.” Government officials reportedly will only talk with

Maskhadov if he puts down his weapons and recognizes Russia's sovereignty in

Chechnya.

Maskhadov's emissary in London, Akhmad Zakaev, told Ekho Moskvy radio on 18

August that “if Alkhanov or someone else is authorized by Russia and given

a mandate to represent the Russian leadership at the talks, these negotiations

are certainly possible. They are not only possible but necessary in order to

put an end to the war.”

UNBALANCED MEDIA COVERAGE

For Alkhanov, the presidential campaign has been more of a coast than an uphill

battle. While all seven candidates are officially given equal airtime to promote

their campaign platforms on radio and television, Alkhanov has hardly needed

it: His candidacy is heavily covered by both the Chechen and Russian media,

sometimes in the same news pieces that report on Putin. As a result, TV viewers

across Russia know next to nothing about the other candidates. The two main

state-owned TV stations in Chechnya barely even mention their names.

At least one candidate, Abdula Bugaev, has complained that he has not been

given his full quota of free airtime on state-controlled media and has argued

that Alkhanov has received special privileges during the campaign.

Others have said the same. On 17 August, a former speaker of the Russian parliament,

Ruslan Khasbulatov, along with several Chechen politicians, scientists, and

other public figures, appealed to Putin in an open letter that asserted that

the Chechen campaign “is being conducted with crude violations of Russian

legislation in favor of Russian-backed candidate Alu Alkhanov.”

“The whole population can see that all the administration’s resources

have been set in motion to favor one specific candidate,” said the letter,

which was excerpted in the online edition of the Caucasus Times.

Indeed, Putin and Alkhanov have already developed a close working relationship

and the Russian leader has made it clear that he expects to work closely with

the next Chechen president. At Sunday’s graveside memorial, according

to The Moscow Times, Putin told Alkhanov, “You and I have to do everything

to fulfill Akhmad Kadyrov's plans, all of his good causes and undertakings."

After the memorial, Alkhanov accompanied Putin back to his vacation home in

Sochi, where the two men discussed Chechnya’s economic situation.

Profits from Chechen petroleum exports could be used to help raise the republic

from the ruins, RIA-Novosti quoted Alkhanov as telling Putin, who called the

idea “reasonable” before telling the candidate to “put your

idea on paper for the federal prime minister and I shall talk to him.”

Putin also told Alkhanov that people in Russia and Chechnya should understand

that the two men can solve the republic’s problems together.

Alkhanov also called on Russia’s Federation Council to make the war-torn

republic a free economic zone until 2013 and suggested establishing a Chechen

national oil company and allowing the Chechen government to create its own customs

duty discounts for businesses registered in the republic, MosNews reported on

10 August.

FIERCE FIGHTING IN GROZNY

For his part, Putin told Alkhanov at their meeting in the Black Sea resort

that social unrest in Chechnya will never be settled “unless the republic

regains law and order,” RIA Novosti reported.

Law and order were nowhere in sight on the night of 21 August, just hours before

Putin’s surprise visit to Chechnya. There are various and conflicting

reports of the number of casualties during several hours of clashes between

separatists and Russian forces in the capital, Grozny, but one Chechen official

told AP that the death toll had risen above 30 and included civilians and at

least 22 law enforcement officials.

More than 50 armed rebels were killed or wounded and 12 were captured, RIA Novosti

reported.

The fighting may have signaled the start of a wave of pre-election violence.

Nikolai Rogozhkin, the commander of federal interior troops in the North Caucasus,

told reporters on 22 August that warlords “may [again] arrange outbreaks

to thwart Chechen stability efforts.” Sergei Ignatchenko, the spokesman

for the Federal Security Service (FSB) press office, said Chechen fighters have

been receiving funds from unnamed “foreign sponsors” to spoil the

election.

He added that the FSB had uncovered “evidence of threats issued against

Chechen residents and calls for them not to turn out to vote in the election,”

Interfax reported on 10 August.

If true, the Chechen fighters might actually have something in common with

Russian military brass: Nezavisimaya Gazeta reported on 13 August that a campaign

has been started by some government forces to postpone the 29 August vote for

a year or more, during which time they would like to see a state of emergency

imposed in Chechnya and the Russian president’s special representative

take control.

With only days left before Sunday’s vote, it's unlikely to happen. Federal

troops and Chechen Interior Ministry force are already on full alert, guarding

430 polling stations throughout the republic. The metal detectors that voters

must pass through before casting their ballots are more proof that Chechnya

may finally be on the road to peace, but it will be a long journey.