In Focus

Israel's Election: General Consensus on Disengagement, but Little Else

by Marco Vicenzino

March 31, 2006

With the lowest voter turnout in its history, Israel 's election confirmed the historical emergence of Kadima as the nation's leading party in less than six months from its creation. Despite his absence from the campaign, the election was conducted and won in the shadow of Sharon's legacy and his vision of disengagement from the Palestinians, whether through unilateral imposition or negotiations.

Although emerging with the most votes, Kadima's results were lower than expected, taking 28 parliamentary seats of 120. Its long-term future or its ability to become Israel's mainstream political party remains far from certain. If and when disengagement is achieved, or during the process, Kadima will have to re-invent itself with a new sense of purpose.

Apart from pursuing a broad national consensus for disengagement from the Palestinians, any new coalition government will not possess a popular mandate to fulfill a clear and comprehensive national agenda on other important fronts, particularly the economy. The fragmented electoral results will contribute to a weak coalition government, reflective of a polarized society and dependent upon the support of smaller parties which vary along ideological, sectarian and ethnic lines that will not hesitate to hold any coalition hostage to their demands.

Triggered by Sharon's departure from Likud, intensified by his irreversible incapacitation and exacerbated by the Hamas victory, Israel's political realignment will remain an evolving volatile process, vulnerable to political shocks, and unlikely to fully consolidate any time soon. Uncertainty will dominate Israel's political landscape for the foreseeable future.

Under its new leader Amir Peretz, Labour retained the loyalty of its political base and secured second place, with 20 seats, after its worst defeat in the 2003 election. The ultra-orthodox party of Sephardic Jews, Shas, took third place with 13 seats. Israel's election demonstrated how nearly 1 million ethnic Russian immigrants, who arrived over the past 15 years, have become a formidable political force through its support for Israeli Beitenu, which replaced Likud as the leading right-wing party, taking fourth place with 12 seats.

For a party that dominated Israel for much of the past thirty years, Likud's fifth place finish with 11 seats proved its inability to present a credible alternative vision for Israel 's future. Its long-term dominance of Israeli politics was achieved by its ability to seize the initiative in setting a national agenda and conveying the image of a pro-active political force, which has degenerated into a reactive entity, particularly under Netanyahu's recent leadership. Netanayahu's claim that Sharon left Likud "absolutely fragmented and smashed to smithereens," was an excuse for his own shortcomings, inability to adapt to current realities and acknowledge a shift in Israeli public opinion. Sharon, a wily political survivor, sensed this early on and was pragmatic enough to break with the party of which he was a founding member.

Aware of his liabilities including lack of charisma and the military credentials traditionally possessed by most Israeli leaders, Ehud Olmert ran a disciplined campaign, sticking to Sharon's memory and agenda. During his brief three-month tenure as acting prime minister, he conveyed an image of prudence, competence and the ability to maintain stability during a period which witnessed the Hamas victory and, most importantly, no major attacks by Palestinian militant groups.

However, the road ahead for Olmert promises to be difficult and unclear. He will continue Sharon's pragmatic approach to forming a coalition government with Labor, but with the critical support of other parties. Domestic policy will be fragile and run according to the lowest common denominator. However, in terms of disengagement from the Palestinians, he is likely to achieve the necessary consensus to fulfill the primary mission of Kadima's existence, which reflects the growing desire of Israeli society to bring issues with Palestinians to closure, whether unilaterally or through negotiations. Olmert's task will be further strengthened by the likelihood of increased support from the US, particularly should it continue not dealing with a Hamas-led Palestinian government.

Perhaps more than any Arab armies or nuclear Iran , the greatest long-term threat to the stability of the state of Israel remains the secular-religious divide from within. The eventual establishment of final borders may create a greater sense of peace and security, which could contribute to the strengthening of domestic difficulties as the national focus shifts from external threats to internal divisions. These splits will not lead to some sort of sudden catastrophic collapse but perhaps contribute to a potential erosion of national unity and the gradual weakening of Israel's foundations and any unpredictable consequences that may be engendered.

Marco Vicenzino is the founder and Executive Director of the Global Strategy Project. He served as Deputy Executive Director of the International Institute for Strategic Studies-US (IISS-US) in Washington, DC, and is an international attorney. He is a graduate of Oxford University and Georgetown University Law Center and has taught International Law at the School of International Service of American University. He can be contacted at msv@globalsp.org

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