Great Decisions 2011 Fall Updates: American national security since 9/11
On May 1, after a decade-long manhunt, Osama bin Laden was killed by elite American special forces at his compound in Abbottabad, Pakistan, a town heavily populated by the Pakistani military. The al-Qaeda leader, who was responsible for the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, was killed along with three male associates during the raid, which was conducted by 23 members of Navy Seal Team Six, a secretive commando force with experience conducting dangerous missions across the world. After taking photographs, DNA samples and bone-marrow samples that confirmed bin Laden’s identity, U.S. forces performed Islamic funeral rites and buried the body at sea.
The raid was the culmination of years of careful work in an intelligence-gathering operation that tracked one of bin Laden’s couriers, Abu Ahmed al-Kuwaiti, to the al-Qaeda leader’s residence. In addition to eliminating the U.S.’s most wanted terrorist, the raid also yielded an immense trove of evidence, including contact information of al-Qaeda associates and information about a terrorist plot timed to coincide with the tenth anniversary of the September 11, 2001, attacks.
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The unilateral U.S. raid has frayed already-damaged relations with Pakistan, which reacted with anger at the revelation that the U.S. had conducted the raid within Pakistani territory and had breached Pakistani airspace while carrying out the raid. Following the raid, Pakistan has faced increasing scrutiny about the possibility that the Pakistani military or the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) was complicit in harboring bin Laden. Top civilian leaders, up to Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani, have claimed total ignorance about bin Laden’s presence in Pakistan. Military leaders have been humiliated and are facing a crisis of confidence over their own admission of ignorance about bin Laden’s presence in a garrison town, as well as their failure to detect the U.S. raid.
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In the aftermath of the raid, Pakistan’s military lashed out, arresting five Pakistanis who had worked with the CIA as informants leading up to the bin Laden raid, revoking the visas of American Special Operations trainers, refusing to issue visas to American equipment technicians, and publicly (and incorrectly) identifying a man purported to be the CIA station chief in Pakistan.
The response from the Obama Administration was sharp and swift: approximately $800 million in aid and equipment to Pakistan’s military will be suspended or withheld. The annual budget for U.S. military aid to Pakistan exceeds $2 billion. U.S. officials suggested that the aid could be restored if Pakistan pursued counter-terror operations more aggressively. The deterioration of relations is likely to affect counterinsurgency operations in neighboring Afghanistan.
In August, U.S. officials concluded that Pakistani intelligence probably permitted Chinese operatives to examine and photograph the wreckage of a Black Hawk stealth helicopter that had crashed at the beginning of the raid on bin Laden’s compound. Although the Seal Team took measures to destroy the helicopter, parts of the tail—which features sophisticated stealth technology— remained intact.
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More than six weeks after bin Laden’s death, al-Qaeda announced that Ayman al-Zawahri would step in to fill the leadership void. Al-Zawahri, an Egyptian militant, has experience working within al-Qaeda’s organizational structure, but he lacks combat experience, and experts have cast him as a divisive figure within the terrorist organization. U.S. officials have downplayed the significance of al-Zawahri’s gaining the leadership of al-Qaeda, as the tumult and regime change of the Arab Spring across the Middle East have proceeded without much regard for al-Qaeda, and have, according to the New York Times, reduced al-Qaeda to “a bystander to history.”
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On June 22, after fierce debate, President Obama announced a plan to withdraw 33,000 U.S. troops— approximately one third of the personnel present— from Afghanistan. The first 10,000 troops are due to return to the U.S. by the end of this year, and the remaining troops will be withdrawn by September 2012. The troops that will be ordered home comprise the “troop surge” that President Obama had ordered in 2009. In his announcement of the withdrawal, President Obama cited gains made against the Taliban in the still-contested country, as well as the death of bin Laden.
The president’s decision reportedly broke with top military officials, including Adm. Mike Mullen and Gen. David Petraeus, both of whom recommended a less aggressive troop withdrawal schedule. Following President Obama’s announcement, British Prime Minister David Cameron and French President Nicolas Sarkozy both announced plans to withdraw significant numbers of their troops from Afghanistan. The first U.S. troops began leaving Afghanistan in July.
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The military and civilian death toll in Afghanistan mounted over the summer. The deadliest day of the war thus far occurred on August 7, when the Taliban shot down a Chinook helicopter. All 30 American service members aboard were killed, including 22 members of Seal Team Six, as well as eight Afghan military personnel. Three days later, the U.S. military announced that a targeted air strike had killed the militants believed to have been responsible for the attack. The bloodshed has exposed the volatility of Logar Province and Wardak Province, where the Taliban are making gains, and where bombings, abductions and murders are contributing to instability on the ground.
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A special report has offered a cautious perspective of the deteriorating security and reconstruction efforts in Iraq. The report, commissioned by Congress and released on July 30, took a dim view of government corruption, electricity shortages and continued attacks by militants. On August 2, the Iraqi government cleared the way for negotiations concerning a continued American military presence in Iraq after the remaining 48,000 U.S. troops are withdrawn by the end of this year.
Middle East protests
The embattled regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is facing stubborn resistance at home and increasing pressure from neighbors and the international community. On August 8, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Kuwait recalled their ambassadors from Syria. The diplomatic exodus followed televised remarks by Saudi King Abdullah, who deplored the bloodshed and called for an end to the violence. Although Western countries, including the U.S., have long called for an end to the violent crackdown by government forces—despite stopping short of calling for Assad’s resignation— Saudi Arabia’s condemnation of the violence marked a sea change in the Arab world. Another neighbor, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, whose country has faced an influx of Syrian refugees crossing over the border to escape the government’s violent crackdown, has strongly condemned Assad’s reaction to the protests.
In early August, the Guardian observed sharply that the U.S., Britain and the West cannot or have not been able to act decisively, while Syria’s neighbors—especially Turkey—have taken the initiative to “read the riot act” to Assad as the crackdown escalates and the humanitarian situation on the Turkish-Syrian border worsens.
It was not until August 18 that President Obama, along with the leaders of Britain, France, Germany and the EU, declared that Assad had lost all legitimacy and called on him to step aside and allow the people of Syria to decide their political destiny. However, Obama explicitly rejected the idea of foreign intervention in Syrian affairs. In addition to previously imposed financial and trade sanctions on Syria’s top bank and top telecommunications company, which is controlled by Assad’s family, the U.S. announced tougher sanctions on August 18, including a freeze of all Syrian assets and a ban on trade of Syrian petroleum products and on investment in Syria by American citizens.
The death toll exceeded 2,000 in early August, with human rights groups reporting that 1,600 civilians were among the dead. On August 18, UN investigators released a report—compiled despite a denial of access to Syria—strongly condemning the torture, kidnapping and summary execution of protesters. The UN registered alarm at the regime’s tactics, and at the potential human rights violations that have occurred since the popular uprising began. The UN Human Rights Council sent a team to Syria to investigate the abuses on August 23, and has put the total death toll at 2,200. The Syrian regime has attempted to control the flow of information out of the country about protests and casualties, and has also limited the movements of international envoys. In defiance of the travel ban, Robert Ford, the U.S. ambassador to Syria, visited the town of Jassem in the restive Dara’a region on August 22.
The crackdown, which intensified during the month of Ramadan, included a virtual siege and shelling of Hama—which has a bloody place in Syrian history as the site of a notorious uprising in 1982 that was brutally squelched by Assad’s father at the cost of thousands of lives. In early August, government tanks moved on Saqareb, near the Turkish border and Qasayr, near the Lebanese border, as well as Homs and Deir al-Zor. Despite the increasing casualties and thousands of disappearances and detentions, Syrian protesters have remained defiant. On August 12, Syrian warships began shelling the main port of Latakia, which was besieged by government forces.
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In Egypt, former President Hosni Mubarak appeared in court in Cairo on August 3 to deny charges of corruption and of murdering peaceful protesters. Mubarak’s sons Gamal and Alaa were also on trial, as well as seven other police and government officials. The trial comes at a restless time in Egyptian politics, as protesters turned out in Tahrir Square and on the streets in July to call for swifter reforms and accountability for the killings of protesters by security forces during the final weeks of Mubarak’s regime. The protests turned violent on July 24, when security forces beat back a march to the headquarters of the military council that has been ruling Egypt since Mubarak’s ouster.
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Crackdowns have continued in Bahrain. The government held a national dialogue in July, but the royal family did not participate and the main Shi‘i opposition party, al-Wefaq, withdrew from the talks, accusing the government of not being serious about reforms. On July 28, King Hamad bin Isa of the ruling al-Khalifa family approved a series of parliamentary reforms. However, these moves did not address the grievances voiced by the protesters, who have continued to demand greater reforms. Al-Wefaq announced on August 12 that it would boycott parliamentary elections in September.
As repression of the protests continues, the prominent aid organization Doctors Without Borders halted all work in Bahrain on August 5 after a July 28 raid on the organization’s offices in Manama. Doctors Without Borders has accused the government of intimidating, arresting and imprisoning doctors and nurses for treating wounded protesters, and human rights groups have accused the government of denying protesters access to medical care. Despite the mounting allegations of abuses, the U.S. government’s response has been restrained. The U.S. Navy categorically denied rumors that it is planning to relocate the Fifth Fleet, which is currently stationed in Bahrain.
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Although the fighting on the ground between Col. Muammar Qadhafi’s supporters and rebels drifted toward a stalemate in early August, the rebels’ total seizure of the oil refinery near Zawiyah, a strategic site near the capital, marked a promising turn for the opposition forces. In addition, the rebels have scored a series of diplomatic victories. On July 15, the U.S. government recognized the rebels’ Transitional National Council (TNC) as the legitimate representative of the Libyan people. Although the U.S. and its allies have continued to assert that no Western ground forces will set foot in Libya, the British defense secretary asserted on August 24 that NATO was assisting the rebels in locating Qadhafi, a break from the narrowly tailored UN humanitarian mandate.
On August 20, the rebels began an assault on the capital of Tripoli. The rebels and Qadhafi loyalists were caught in fierce fighting in the streets, but the whereabouts of Qadhafi—who has an International Criminal Court warrant out for his arrest, as well as a bounty on his head worth $1.7 million, a sum put together by Libyan businessmen and supported by the TNC—remained unknown at the time these Updates went to press. The rebels’ symbolic capture of Qadhafi’s compound in Tripoli—and initial, conflicting reports about capturing three of Qadhafi’s sons, including the highly visible Seif al-Islam— came on August 23, amid celebrations by the opposition forces. The death toll continues to mount and hospitals are flooded with the wounded, and the total number of casualties remains unknown.
Along with their military victories, the TNC has also gained broader international recognition and the prospect of access to frozen Libyan assets held by other countries. Although the West is forging ahead with the TNC, the African Union has not yet recognized the rebels’ legitimacy. On August 24, the U.S. asked the UN Security Council to unfreeze $1.5 billion in aid to the TNC, while voices in Libya and the Middle East suggested that perhaps the role of NATO—and the U.S.—had reached its end. The rebels previously received access to $30 billion in assets that had been frozen by the U.S. government. As the rebels advanced through Tripoli, the U.S. and NATO expressed concern about Qadhafi’s stockpiles of mustard gas and other chemical weapons, weapons of mass destruction and missiles. The U.S. has been monitoring the security of known sites of these stockpiles.
However, the rebels have not yet consolidated their control over Tripoli and fighting continues in the capital and throughout the country. There is speculation about whether Qadhafi remains in the capital, or whether he has fled to his hometown of Sirte or abroad. With Tripoli still unsecured, the TNC remains based in Benghazi, and their victory remains incomplete so long as Qadhafi remains at large.
Meanwhile, a top Libyan rebel commander who was a former Qadhafi aide, Gen. Abdul Fattah Younes, was assassinated by his own forces. His murder has exposed tensions between factions of rebels, who are often entirely disorganized and uncoordinated. Nevertheless, as the rebels gain control over Tripoli, the TNC’s leader and de facto prime minister, Mahmoud Jibril, has issued strong calls discouraging looting and retribution against Qadhafi supporters. Despite its weakening grasp on the country, Qadhafi’s regime remains defiant; his son, Seif al-Islam, announced in early August that the regime would be allying with Islamists to fight the rebels.
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Protests continue in Yemen, which saw the departure of President Ali Abdullah Saleh after he was seriously injured in a bomb attack on June 3. Saleh, who received medical treatment in Saudi Arabia for approximately two months, has made a series of televised appearances since the attack. His first television appearance, on July 7, revealed that he had severe burns and had undergone a series of surgeries. In the meantime, Saleh’s relatives have seized control of the country, despite six months of protests calling for his ouster.
John Brennan, the U.S. counterterrorism chief, met with Saleh in Saudi Arabia in July and urged him not to return to Yemen and to sign a Gulf Cooperation Council–sponsored accord that would provide for a transition from Saleh’s rule. Despite having agreed to a transition from power, and although the protesters have named their own shadow government, Saleh thus far has refused to step down. Yemen’s prime minister, Ali Mujawar, returned to Yemen on August 23 after spending weeks in Saudi Arabia recuperating from injuries sustained during the same bombing. Violent clashes continued in the Abeyan province, where the government is fighting militants linked to al-Qaeda.
Note: The Great Decisions fall Updates were researched as of 8/25/2011.